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TRACK FORECASTING
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Factors Affecting TC Motion
Track Guidance Models
Another way to classify
models:
CLIPER (CLIMatology and
PERsistence)
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NHC90 (Atlantic), NHC91
(East Pacific)
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LBAR (Limited-area
BARotropic)
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EXPLICIT USE
OF GLOBAL MODELS FOR
TC PREDICTION
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Inner Mesh of GFDL Model
(Hurricane Georges 1998)
Outer Mesh of GFDL
Model (Hurricane Georges
1998)
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INITIAL (CURRENT)
MOTION
CONTINUITY
ADDITIONAL GUIDLINES
INITIAL INPUT
DATA
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HOW TO USE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS TO MAKE A
FORECAST??
USE OF MODELS (CONT.)
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
IN THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH, A
NUMBER OF FORECASTS
ARE MADE WITH
A MODEL USING PERTURBED
INITIAL CONDITIONS THAT
(HOPEFULLY) REPRESENT THE
LIKELY INITIAL ANALYSIS
ERROR
DISTRIBUTION.
THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH
HOLDS PROMISE IN
PROVIDING A MEASURE
OF CONFIDENCE IN A
FORECAST.
IF THERE IS A RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD
AMONGST MEMBERS OF
THE ENSEMBLE, THEN
ONE MIGHT EXPECT
TO BE ABLE TO MAKE
A RELATIVELY “HIGH CONFIDENCE” TC TRACK FORECAST.
NOTE: A
GROUP OF FORECAST
TRACKS FROM DIFFERENT
PREDICTION MODELS (GFDL,
UKMET, NOGAPS, etc.)
FROM THE SAME
INITIAL TIME CAN
ALSO BE CONSIDERED
AS AN ENSEMBLE.
THIS, OF COURSE, IS THE
TYPE OF “ENSEMBLE”
THAT IS AVAILABLE
TO US OPERATIONALLY
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NOAA Gulfstream IV Jet
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"NON-METEOROLOGICAL"
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TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY FORECASTING
TOPICS
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FACTORS DETERMINING
TC INTENSITY CHANGE
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TC INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS
THE SHIPS
MODEL
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