ࡱ>   qr !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~Root Entryb.@p.,)SlideShowE/,)E/,)Main PerfectOffice_MAIN&P   Original Slide Show Oh+'Oh+'0D T `COMETy8c:\C      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopWPCP ~ 78-eePh*FzQW]c |"XXXX'3XXXX3' >!XN _ v{;Lib p#%',AU. a0>2W4=WPC ( (2  I  .3  ETA-32MODELCHARACTERISTICS....2  1  .3  FortheLesson:EtaCharacteristics,Biases,andUsageDecember1998," ,2  I  .3  ETA-32JobStream..2  A  .3  48-hforecaststwiceadayat0000and1200UTC..2  A  .3  33-hforecastat0300UTC..2  A  .3  30-hforecastat1800UTC," ,2  I  .3  HorizontalResolution..2  A  .3  32-kmreplacedthe48-kmconfiguration..2  A  .3  Wasacompromiseamongseveralfactors....2  1  .3  IncreasingtheresolutionoftheEarlyEtasystemtobeascloseaspossibletotheEta-29....2  1  .3  Keepingthemodelhorizontaldomainsizenearlythesameasthecurrent48-kmgrid..2  A  .3  Eta-32outputisavailableonthesame80-kmgridsastheEta-48," ,2  I  .3  DiscussionQuestions..2  A  .3  With32-kmhorizontalresolution,whattypesofphenomenacantheEtabeexpectedtoresolve?..2  A  .3  Whateffectsdoestheremappingofmodeloutputtoan80-kmgridhaveontheresolutionoffeatures?0&   02  I  .3  HorizontalDomain..2  A  .3  Easternboundaryof32-kmgridcapturesasmuchoftropicalAtlanticaspossibleandkeepsPuertoRicoinsidedomain..2  A  .3  NorthernboundaryforAlaskavirtuallyunchanged..2  A  .3  Biggestdifference-alongthewesternboundary,Hawaiiismuchclosertotheboundarythanwith48-kmgrid0&    02  I  .3  VerticalResolution..2  A  .3  45verticallayers..2  A  .3  BetterdistributionoflayersoverhighterrainthanEta-48(38levels)..2  A  .3  NotasgoodverticaldefinitionasEta-29(50levels)..2  A  .3  Representsacompromisebetween38levelsinEta-48and50levelsinEta-29(    (2  I  .3  DiscussionQuestions..2  A  .3  WhatconsiderationsshouldbetakenintoaccountabouttheverticalresolutionoftheboundarylayerwhenusingEtamodelguidancewithinyourCWA?..2  A  .3  Whyisitimportanttohavegreaterverticalresolutionwithintheboundarylayer?..2  A  .3  Whereelseintheatmospherewouldmodelforecastsbenefitfromgreaterverticalresolution?(  (2  I  .3  SigmaCoordinateVersusEta..2  A  .3  Characteristicsofterrainrepresentationresultincomputationaldifferencesinbasicmodelequations....2  1  .3  Computetemperatureandpressuregradienttermsdifferently....2  1  .3  Canintroducelargeerrorsnearsteeporcomplexterrain0&   02  I  .3  SigmaCoordinate..2  A  .3  Nearslopedterrain,temp.changesonasigmasurfacearepartiallyaresultofhydrostatictemperaturechangesduetochangeinelevation....2  1  .3  Verticaltemperaturegradientmuchlargerthanhorizontaltemperaturegradient....2  1  .3  Verticalgradientshavedominatinginfluenceonpressuregradientcalculation....2  1  .3  Leadstolargetemperatureerrors,especiallynearsteepterraininthesigmaterrainfollowingcoordinatesystem0&   02  I  .3  EtaCoordinate..2  A  .3  EtacoordinatereduceserrorsincomputingPGF,advection,anddiffusionnearsteepterrain....2  1  .3  Resultofsurfaceterrainheightsatdiscretesetsofvaluesorsteps,"  ,2  I  .3  EtaCoordinateContinued..2  A  .3  Valuesorstepsdependentuponverticalresolutionofmodelandmountainheight....2  1  .3  Terrainappearsstep-wiseratherthansmoothandcontinuousasinthesigmacoordinate....2  1  .3  Foragivenrangeofelevations,theetacoordinateallowstheterraintoexistonmorethanoneetasurface....2  1  .3  Inthesigmacoordinate,theterraincanonlyexistononesigmasurface," ,2  I  .3  DiscussionQuestions..2  A  .3  Whyisitimportantforamodeltoaccuratelysolvethebasicequationsofmotionandthermodynamics?..2  A  .3  Whateffectscanlargeerrorsinthetemperatureadvectionandgradientfieldshaveonothermodelforecastfieldssuchaswinds,pressure,verticalmotion,andprecipitation?..2  A  .3  Whattypesofadjustmentsmaybenecessarytoaccountforcomputationalerrorsinthesefields?," ,2  I  .3  EtaTerrainRepresentation..2  A  .3  Modelterrainmuchsmootherthaninreality,evenintheetacoordinate..2  A  .3  Terrainsmoothingcanbelargesourceoferrorinregionsaffectedbysmall-scaleterrainfeatures....2  1  .3  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman RegularcTerrainsmoothingdonepartlybecauseairflowovercomplexterraincangeneratesmall-scalenoiseinthemodel....2  1  .3  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman RegularcSmall-scalenoisecanmasklarger-scalesignalc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularcxxx0&   02  I  .3  EtaTerrainRepresentationc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc(Cont.)c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc..2  A  .3  Etamodelusesstep-mountaintopography....2  1  .3  Thestep-mountainisraisedorloweredtoclosestverticalinterfaceafterinterpolationtoetanativegrid0&  ,  02  I  .3  EtaTerrainRepresentationc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc(Cont.)c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc..2  A  .3  Mountainsrepresentedasdiscretestepswhosetopscoincideexactlywithmodellayerinterfaces0&   02  I  .3  EtaTopography:WestU.S...2  A  .3  Modelresolutionaffectsdepictionoftopography..2  A  .3  Eta-29andEta-32modelsshowconsiderablymoredetailthanEta-48..2  A  .3  BetterdefinitionofSierraNevadaandCascaderangesinEta-29andEta-32,"   ,2  I  .3  EtaTopography:WestU.S.c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc(Cont.)c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc..2  A  .3  Exception-betweenEta-29andEta-32intheGreatBasininnorthernNevada....2  1  .3  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman RegularcEta-29terrainshowsmostoftheregionatoneelevation....2  1  .3  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman RegularcEta-32depictsthisregionon3differentstepsc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularcxxx0&  !" 02  I  .3  EtaTopography:CONUS..2  A  .3  OverthecontiguousU.S.,mountainsspreadoveraslightlygreaterhorizontaldomainthaninreality..2  A  .3  Terrainaveragingovereachgridboxcausesmodelrepresentationofterrainslopetobetooshallow..2  A  .3  Canaffectmodelverticalmotionandprecipitationforecasts0&  #$  02  I  .3  EtaTopographyEffects:VerticalMotion..2  A  .3  Insufficientterrainslopeinmodelresultsinverticalmotionfieldsbeingshiftedawayfrommountainsandsteepestterrain..2  A  .3  Inexample,inadequatedefinitionofSierraNevadashiftedmaximumverticalmotionswestwardawayfromthesteepesttopography0& %&  02  I  .3  EtaTopography:Precipitation..2  A  .3  Impactofterrainsmoothing-misplacementofprecipitationinvicinityofcomplexterrain..2  A  .3  Forthisexample,precipitationfieldshiftedwestofthehighest/steepestterrain..2  A  .3  Etamodeloftenpredictsprecipitationtoofarwest,awayfrommountainpeaks," '(,2  I  .3  PrecipitationVerification..2  A  .3  Observedprecip.greaterthanEtaforecast..2  A  .3  Heaviestamountsconcentratednearhigherterrain..2  A  .3  Muchlesseramountsinvalleys( )*(2  I  .3  DiscussionQuestions..2  A  .3  Ifterrainisaconcerninyourareaofresponsibility....2  1  .3  HowwilltheEtasterrainresolutionandtreatmentofterraininfluenceitsforecastsofprecipitation?....2  1  .3  WhatadjustmentstothemodelforecastwouldbenecessarywithinyourforecastareabasedonknownterrainfeaturesandEtamodelcharacteristics?....2  1  .3  Wouldtheadjustmentstomodelforecastsberegimedependent?Ifso,howmighttheyvary? 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Instructor notes To improve the quality and timeliness of NCEP's Mesoscale forecast guidance over North America, a series of enhancements to the Early Eta system were implemented, including an increase in resolution from 48-km/38 levels to 32-km/45 levels with little change in the size of the horizontal domain.Instructor notes Specifically discuss the following. The impact of mapping model output to the 80-km grid is to effectively increase the size of features that can be resolved on the model output. Although the current Early Eta has a 32-km resolution, many details can get smoothed by mapping the output fields to an 80-km grid. Technically, resolvable features should be on the order of approximately 150-km for a 32-km model, but due to the mapping of the output to an 80-km grid, the details of smaller features may be lost. Instructor notes To reduce lateral boundary errors due to the western boundary being closer to Hawaii, the Eta-32 boundary conditions are updated every 3-h from the latest (6-h old) run of the AVN. This is an improvement over the Eta-48, which used 6-h updates from the AVN run that were 12-h old. Instructor notes Point out that the concentration of layers in the boundary layer and near the upper jet level (vicinity of 250 hPa) allows for better definition of features within these regions. Most of the extra model levels were added below 700 hPa to allow the Eta-32 to better resolve low-level mesoscale structures in mountainous areas, such as the western U.S. and Alaska. The lack of vertical resolution over high terrain has been blamed for many problems that Western Region forecasters have seen in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) (light winds, etc). The actual distribution of vertical layers over high terrain is better than the Eta-48 but worse than the Eta-29. Near 700 hPa, the vertical depth of the layer is 32 hPa in the Eta-48, 28 hPa in the Eta-32, and 22 hPa in the Eta-29 models. Hence, the Eta-32 is better than the Eta-48, but is not expected to substantially correct the PBL problems over complex, high terrain. Instructor notes In the graphic, T1, T2, and T3 are located at 3 points within a grid box in the model. The terrain following sigma surface makes up the remainder of the grid box. Since the vertical temperature gradient (change between T1 and T2) is large, T3 (located at the same elevation as T2) will be considerably colder than T1 due to the elevation change. The model will assume that the gradient between T1 and T3 is the horizontal temperature gradient when, in fact, it is mostly due to the elevation gain. This miscalculation of the temperature gradient translates to a much stronger horizontal pressure gradient calculation than is representative of the real world. This is why sigma coordinate models often forecast unrealistic pressure gradients near steep terrain.Instructor notes (for this and the next slide) Since eta is normalized by a constant value of sea level pressure (1013 hPa) rather than the station pressure (which varies considerably over mountainous terrain), each eta surface is flat when lying over mountains. It is this feature of the eta coordinate that allows for more accurate calculation of the horizontal pressure gradient terms, because errors are not introduced due to elevation changes between adjacent grid points. The grid points within a grid box remain on the same elevation plane. Instructor notes Emphasize how inaccurate temperature gradients will feedback to other parameters, such as over-forecasting the pressure gradient, winds, and possibly the resultant vertical motions and precipitation. Be sure to stress that these effects are most critical near steep terrain. Instructor notes An example of small-scale noise induced by terrain that can mask the larger scale signal is the meso- or local-scale vertical motion changes induced by complex terrain that mask the large-scale vertical motion field. Instructor notes The following example can be used to illustrate how terrain is fit to the eta coordinate. In the graphic, there are three points that lie on the actual terrain surface, fit to the eta surfaces as follows: Given that Eta surface (n) = sigma (W)n s   Where n s  = Pr(Zs) ! Pt / Pr(z=0) ! Pt Then at point 1 in the figure, assume W = 1, Pt = 0 (model top), Pr(z=0) = 1000 hPa (pressure at sea level), and an actual terrain elevation of 848 meters. The nearest specified Zs height is 1000 meters and the reference pressure at that height is Pr = 900 hPa. The eta surface then is determined to be n = 1 x (900 ! 0) / 1000 ! 0) = .9 Therefore, point 1 is raised to the elevation of n = .9 (1000 meters) in the model.  (Notes continue on next slide) Instructor notes continued Similarly, if point 2 is located at an actual elevation of 1126 meters, the assigned Zs and PrZs remain the same, so n stays at .9. Point 2 is essentially lowered to the .9 eta surface (at 1000 meters). However, for point 3 with an elevation of 1800 meters, the nearest Zs is 2000 meters, so the new n becomes n = 1 x (800 !0 / 1000 ! 0) = .8 Point 3 is essentially raised to 2000 meters, which is at the n = .8 surface in the model. The step mountain coordinate allows for a more realistic interaction between topographic features and the atmosphere. The Eta model depicts mountains with vertical sides, and the air flow adjacent to these sides is constrained to flow parallel to them, just as occurs in the real atmosphere. One of the drawbacks to this is that excessive blocking of the flow can occur near steeper terrain. Instructor notes (for this and the next slide) The Eta-32 has a better depiction of the Great Basin because of a modification of the orography algorithm toward one that is more "valley-favoring" and adds more small-scale detail. Grid-cell mean terrain height, by definition, will continue to be higher than the elevation of many individual stations, which are usually located in valleys. However, the differences will be less pronounced with the new algorithm in the Eta-32 because these lower valley regions are defined on more steps, thereby reducing the amount of elevation lowering or raising to fit the model layers.Instructor notes Model terrain spread over a larger horizontal domain than in reality and an inability to accurately depict terrain slope can greatly affect the magnitude and locations of terrain-induced vertical motions. This, in turn, will affect terrain-influenced precipitation location and amounts. The following slides illustrate these effects. Instructor notes Point out how the maximum upward motion is west of both the steepest topography and highest peaks. This is especially true in northern California, where the stronger upward motion is shifted toward and over the coast. You may want to use an actual topographical map and the Eta topography for California from Slide 12. Also point out that there is actually little to no upward vertical motion indicated over the actual location of the crest of the Sierras. The tangible results of this are discussed on the following slide.Instructor notes The problem is not only inadequate terrain resolution but also simplified microphysics. The microphysics, especially in the boundary layer near complex terrain, cannot adequately resolve all of the smaller-scale processes that contribute to terrain-influenced precipitation processes. A secondary effect of inadequate terrain resolution is the Etas tendency to not allow enough precipitation on the immediate downwind side of mountain ranges. Note this effect in the graphic, where there is virtually no precipitation indicated on the immediate eastern slopes of the Sierras. In fact, the model shows only light precipitation, even over and slightly west of the highest peaks. Corrections to the model forecast in this case would be to concentrate heavier precipitation along the steep west-facing terrain and over the peaks of the Sierras, add more spill-over precipitation on the eastern slopes of the Sierras, and decrease amounts in the valley areas between the coast range and the Sierras. Instructor Notes: Actual precipitation closely parallels terrain features with lesser amounts away from the steep terrain and in the valley regions. 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