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University of Georgia-Athens: "Improving Clear air Turbulence Forecasts at the AWC."

Abstract:

The accurate prediction of aviation turbulence remains one of the most vexing problems for operational meteorology, and is especially acute for clear air turbulence, which occurs at high altitudes and without nearby convection or significant cloudiness. In this Cooperative Project, the NWS Aviation Weather Center will be testing and evaluating two new state-of-the-art diagnostic methods that have been shown to improve on current operational CAT diagnostics. Knox et al.’s (2008) theory-based diagnostic, derived from the Lighthill-Ford theory of spontaneous generation of gravity waves, has been shown to forecast CAT as well or better than the statistically based Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) method during a five-month trial period. Theory suggests that the greatest improvements from Lighthill-Ford will be realized in regions of cyclonic flow. The new Ellrod-Knox diagnostic targets the complementary situation of anticyclonic unbalanced flow, which has been a challenge for CAT diagnostics. Initial findings suggest that the Ellrod-Knox diagnostic is an improvement over the Ellrod Index, currently used at AWC.