Examples of Descriptions of Model Benefits

Example 1: This project has provided the foundation for improved use of numerical model guidance. Our forecasters are now more critical of model output, disregarding it in cases where it doesn't make sense physically and accepting the guidance when it
does make sense physically. This critical evaluation has lead to better forecasts being provided to the public on several occasions. In summary, this project has provided our forecasters with the diagnostic tools and ability to evaluate what the numerical models are doing, and why, and has provided a process which allows the forecaster to use sound physical reasoning to "accept or reject" guidance. The models do well many times but this project has helped us to know when guidance is not doing well and to make appropriate adjustments which (in our view) has resulted in providing a better service to the public.


Example 2: The project had a tremendous positive impact on the ability of National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) Louisville forecasters to issue accurate real-time severe weather warnings. One case in particular stands out. A squall line moved across southern Indiana and Kentucky on 20 April 1996. While many convective cells along the line were severe, forecasters were able to differentiate those portions of the line where straight-line wind damage potentially would be greatest and then highlight warnings accordingly. In addition, tornado warnings were issued for Floyd County, Indiana and Madison County, Kentucky based solely on WSR-88D reflectivity and velocity patterns and knowledge of squall line structure attained from the COMET research on other such cases. Finally, the project sparked more interest in science and illustrated for staff members the benefits that research can have on operational programs.