"Southeast US Cyclogenesis"
28 April 1998

This case follows the evolution of a low pressure system through its lifecycle as it moves from Arkansas to Illinois, and provides a good example of the effects of model biases in the AVN model. The errors introduced to the AVN model due to inherent biases resulted in an incorrect prediction of strong cyclogenesis over the Gulf of Mexico. The data used for this were presented as a laboratory exercise during the COMAP Symposia on Numerical Weather Prediction held at COMET.

Case Study 015