Case 034: NJ Flood- Lab Exercise
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Case 034: NJ Flood- Lab Exercise |
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Learning Objectives
To do a QPF for an event that does not involve excessive magnitude of the various moisture parameters.
To get a feel for the subtle but important factors leading to heavy precipitation.
Materials Provided
Hand analysis of sfc mean sea level pressure (every 1 mb) and dewpoint (every 2oF) for 0000 and 0900 UTC 12 August 2000.
Hand analysis of 925 mb heights and dewpoint at 0000 UTC 12 Aug.
Soundings from Albany NY, Washington DC, and Brookhaven NY.
RUC 0900 UTC 12 Aug analysis of 500mb height/vort
RUC 6-h fcst valid 1500 UTC 12 Aug: 300 K pressure and wind.
Assignment Part I (~45 min) SET CLOCK TO 0915 12 Aug 2000
You may review any data through 0915 UTC 12 August, including any forecast periods from numerical models issued up through 0900 UTC (Meso-ETA at 0300, and RUC at 0900). Do not look at observational data beyond 0915 UTC.
Prepare a QPF for the 12-h period ending at 0000 UTC 13 August on the map provided. Use 0.5-inch increments if you think there will be less than 1.00 inch. Use 1-inch increments if you feel there will be more than isolated amounts >1.00 inch.
What will be the primary mechanism for producing precipitation?
What will cause heavy precipitation, or, what will inhibit it?
Should there be any concerns in the Philadelphia CWA for flash flood or severe weather?
Assignment Part II (~30 min) SET CLOCK TO 1300 12 Aug 2000
Now look at any data through 1300 UTC, including any model data from the 1200 UTC model runs (it was a really fast day at NCEP).
What seems to be happening that is resulting in the current distribution and magnitude of precipitation?
How long will it continue?
Should you have a flash flood warning out? A watch?
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