"Bow Echo over Paducah, KY"
05 May 1996

Laboratory Exercise
Written by Ron Przybylinski and Mike Biggerstaff

 

INTRODUCTION: This exercise will focus on convective and quantitative precipitation forecasting and interpretation of radar imagery associated with a mesoscale convective system.

TASKS

1. Using the data and model output available from 00 to 08 UTC on 5 May 1996, issue a convective outlook valid from 08 to 18 UTC for the mid-western region on the map provided. Be prepared to discuss the reasoning behind your forecast.

Complete part one of the exercise in 45 minutes.

 

2. Focussing on the Kansas City, MO area, perform a general 12 hour QPF (not basin average) valid from 06 to 18 UTC 5 May 1996. Label your area of rainfall in inches. What were the major factors that affected your decisions regarding the QPF?

Complete part 2 of the exercise in 30 minutes.

 

3. Answer the questions below using the PAH radar data from 1750 to 1930 UTC on 5 May 1996.

  1. What type of mesoscale convective system is moving through the area?
  2. What stage of evolution is the system currently at in its lifecycle?
  3. What type of severe weather (if any) would you expect to be present for this type of storm system at this stage of its lifecycle?
  4. Based on the available radar data, what type of warnings would you issue and what regions would they cover?
  5. Do you see evidence of any cyclonic circulations in the radar data? If so, what are their scale and estimated maximum rotational velocity? What types of circulations do you believe these to be(e.g. MCV, line-end vortex, rotation comma head, mesocyclones, TVS)?

 

Review Support Documentation for verification.

homedot.gif (968 bytes) Case Study 004