Univ. of Hawaii: Regional forecast problems, flash flooding

Univ. of Hawaii: "Regional forecast problems, flash flooding"

Final Report

High winds, wind-driven waves and swell, and flooding caused by tropical cyclones and midlatitude frontal systems present significant hazards to society and constitute, therefore, significant forecasting challenges in the Pacific Region. The purpose of this project was to provide a cooperative environment for meteorological and hydrometeorological research and learning through which working models of benefit to both the classroom and operational environments could be developed; the application of new NWS technologies better understood; and computer-based software tools and training materials created.

The following objectives were identified for this Cooperative Project:

Conduct joint research projects to investigate significant regional weather events (e.g., Hurricane Iniki) and create climatologies of classes of significant weather events (e.g., Kona Lows), with special focus on the application of new observing facilities such as the WSR-88D. Several case studies were investigated, including one of a bow echo that occurred on the island of Kauai in November 1995.
Develop a mesoscale modeling capability at the university directed at simulating orographically influenced wind flows and precipitation distributions. The Regional Spectral Model is currently being run with a synoptic domain of 25-km resolution and a nested domain of 10 km.
Develop mesoscale diagnostic and forecasting algorithms and tools to aid forecasters, with special focus on the WSR-88D data (i.e., rainfall retrieval algorithms) and the flash flooding challenge in Hawaii. Several case studies have been analyzed, and a climatology of tropical storm tracks in the central Pacific has been completed. The researchers have also investigated the use of a new tool to improve flash flood forecasting. The Areal Mean Basin Estimated Rainfall (AMBER) technique uses high-resolution radar reflectivity data to compute average basin rainfall estimates for hydrologic basins of various scales.
Establish high-speed data links between the university and the collocated NWS office with software-compatible computer platforms.
Develop a laboratory facility for both educational and operational uses. The VISIONLAB now brings state-of-the-art workstation technology to the University of Hawaii. The lab takes advantage of the UNIDATA program's data stream and other data resources from NOAA and NASA via the Internet to bring in real-time data. A primary research objective is the mitigation of the impacts of natural hazards on society and industry through improvements in the understanding and prediction of regional and local characteristics of these events. One of the means for doing this is through the application of 2- and 3-D mesoscale primitive equation models to simulate the case studies collected. Several models are run on VISIONLAB resources and the output is made available to the NWS, which is now collocated, with the university.

In addition to the previously mentioned activities, the University of Hawaii worked with the COMET Program and the NWS Pacific Region headquarters to develop a Tropical Meteorology Course and Symposium that were held in February of 1995. The need for training and education curricula for operational forecasters is particularly acute in the Pacific Region since it encompasses such a vast geographic area and includes tropical mesoscale weather regimes that have received significantly less scientific attention in the past. Accordingly, the focus of the course was on weather phenomena of particular interest in the region (rainbands, frontal weather associated with extratropical systems, and tropical cyclones) and on the use of the new observing tools for detecting and analyzing them.