This is a brief summary of the activities that were conducted under the COMET fellowship program by Christopher G. Herbster. The original proposed work included three components:
Develop and implement an operational version of the Pennsylvania State University National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) for use at the Tallahassee WSFO:
This project required multiple levels of development. Ultimately the Eta model output was used to define the initial and boundary conditions for the MM5. The real-time modeling system (data ingestion through post-processing) has continued to run long after the completion of the sponsored project. This has been the case with only a modest amount of housekeeping duties, conducted by the Science Operations Officer at the NWSO, since the departure of the postdoctoral fellow.
The mesoscale model has shown significant skill in forecasting the mesoscale structures that are observed across the region through the various observing systems available. The primary limitation of the project has been the limited computing resources available to the NWSO. An increase in computing power would enable the office to generate a forecast with a larger domain, the principle weakness to the completed real-time modeling system.
Develop a data conversion routine to allow the MM5 output to be imported into the PC-Gridded Interactive Display and Diagnostic System (PC-GRIDDS) software package to complement the existing Unix/X-window based visualization software:
The advent of GARP and NTRANS provided an environment that made this objective obsolete. Instead of investing time and energy into the PC-GRIDDS development, post-processing scripts were developed to use the GEMPAK/GARP/NTRANS software. These automated scripts continue to offer model output images to the forecasters within the forecast office, in addition to output provided on an Internet web server.
Oversee and assist in the collection and analysis of data, and participate in sea breeze forecasting and the development of a climatological database. These data will be instrumental for the verification of the model forecasts:
The results of NWSO TLH "satellite climatology" program have been compared to the mesoscale model output, providing further insight into the forecast problems of the summertime flow regime. Initial work in the collection and sharing of data among NWS and other state and federal agencies was conducted. These efforts have helped to establish the beginning of a "Florida mesonet", with state, federal, DoD, educational and private agencies participating.
In addition to the three aforementioned proposal goals, the applicant was to be available to assist in supervision of related research topics in collaboration with the FSU Meteorology Department, the Cooperative Institute for Tropical Meteorology (CITM) and WSFO Tallahassee.
The fellow participated, and continues to work with, a variety of research initiatives with scientists from each of the aforementioned groups. In addition to the groups that have been listed, the fellow was able to conduct research with members of the NWSO JAX office, the FSU Oceanography Department, and the Florida Division of Forestry (along with Canadian and Univ. of Florida scientists). In addition to the list provided, participation in other research projects occurred, but the work is still in progress or the fellow's input was limited. The list of papers and presentations indicates the breadth of research topics that were pursued.
Scientific Papers and Presentations
The following is a list of papers and presentations that were conducted as a result of the fellowship program. The 1998 conference presentations were submitted at the end of the funded period and were conducted after the completion of the fellowship period. The rest of the list was conducted during the fellowship period.
Green, M.A., and C.G. Herbster, J. L. Guentzel, P. H. Ruscher, and W. M. Landing, 1998: Mesoscale Transport of Mercury in South Florida. The tenth Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA. 78th Annual AMS Conference, 11 - 15 January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona, 427-431.
Herbster, C. G., J. Brenner, R. M. Suddaby, R. J. Carr, B. S. Lee, L. G. Arvanitis, and D. P. Brackett, 1998: Real Time Mesoscale Modeling in Support of Fire Weather Forecasting. The Second Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 78th Annual AMS Conference, 11-15 January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona, 149 - 152.
Herbster, C. G., K. J. Gould, J. D. Fournier, and A. 1. Watson, 1998: An Idealized Mesoscale Model Simulation under Light and Variable Synoptic Flow over the Florida Panhandle during the summer. Second Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes, 78th Annual AMS Conference, 11-15 January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona, 237 - 240.
Herbster, C. G., A. I. Watson, and R. R. Carle, 1998: Mesoscale Model Simulations, Doppler Radar Observations and Observed Rainfall of a Land Falling Tropical Storm in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 16th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 12th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 78th Annual AMS Conference, 11-15 January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona, 94 - 97.
Herbster, C. G. and A. 1. Watson, 1998: Real Time Mesoscale Modeling in an Operational Environment. The 16th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 12th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 78th Annual AMS Conference, 11-15 January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona, 335 - 336.
Wegiel, Jerry W. and Christopher G. Herbster, 1998: The Origin of African Easterly Waves? The 16th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, 78th Annual AMS Conference, 11-15 January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona, 13-16.
Herbster, C. G., A. I. Watson, and J. Brenner, 1997: Real Time Modeling Efforts Utilizing the MM5 in the Southeastern United States. The Seventh PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop, July 21 - 23, 1997, NCAR Foothills Lab, Boulder, CO.
Herbster, C. G., A. I. Watson, and R. R. Carle, 1997: MM5 Simulations of a Land Falling Tropical Storm in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The Seventh PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop, July 21 - 23, 1997, NCAR Foothills Lab, Boulder, CO.
Herbster, C. G., P. T. Welsh, and P. Santos, 1997: A Mesoscale Simulation in Support of the Jacksonville Area Sea Breeze Experiment (JASBEX). The Seventh PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop, July 21 - 23, 1997, NCAR Foothills Lab, Boulder, CO.
Carle, R. R., C. G. Herbster, and A. 1. Watson, 1997: Comparing Performance of a Mesoscale Model, WSR-88D STP, and Observed Rainfall Totals During TS Josephine. HAS Advanced Training Workshop, Feb. 25 - Feb. 27, OSF, Norman OK.
Santos, P., P. Welsh, A. Sandrik, and C. G. Herbster, 1996: Jacksonville Area Sea Breeze Experiment (JASBEX) 95: Analysis of the Sea Breeze Convective Initiation with Mesoscale Numerical Modeling Studies. National Weather Association 21st Annual Meeting, December 1-6 1996, Cocoa Beach, FL.
Herbster, Christopher G., 1996: Mesoscale Modeling Basics and Model Applications in a Weather Service Forecast Office. Workshop on Precipitation Forecasting, October 21, 1996, NWSO Jacksonville.
Herbster, Christopher G., 1996: Identifying the spatial and temporal patterns of heavy precipitation. Advanced Heavy Precipitation Forecasting and QPF Workshop, September 16-18, 1996, SERFC/NWSFO Peachtree City, GA.
Herbster, Christopher G., 1996: The Impact of Cumulus Parameterization on a Sea Breeze Simulation. Sixth PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop, July 22 - 25, 1996, NCAR Foothills Lab, Boulder, CO.
Herbster, Christopher G., 1996: The role of domain resolution on the evolution of a simulated, convectively active, sea breeze circulation. Sixth PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop, July 22 - 25, 1996, NCAR Foothills Lab, Boulder, CO.
Herbster, Christopher G., 1996: Mesoscale Temporal Output for High Resolution Mesoscale Modeling. Sixth PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop, July 22 - 25, 1996, NCAR Foothills Lab, Boulder, CO.
Tunney, Douglas A., Paul H. Ruscher, and Christopher G. Herbster, 1996: Numerical Studies of the Georgia Coast Sea Breeze. Sixth PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop, July 22 - 25, 1996, NCAR Foothills Lab, Boulder, CO.
Herbster, Christopher G., 1996: Tropical Land and Sea Breeze Systems. WMO 1996 Training Course on Tropical Forecasting and Tropical Cyclone Forecasting, May 13 - 24, 1996, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, 32306-3034.
Herbster, Christopher G., 1996: Regional and Mesoscale Models. WMO 1996 Training Course on Tropical Forecasting and Tropical Cyclone Forecasting, May 13 - 24, 1996, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida. 32306-3034.
Herbster, Christopher G., 1996: Regional and Mesoscale Models. Third Annual SOO/Cooperative Institute Workshop, April 29 - May 2, 1996, Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, 32306-3034.
Herbster, C. G. and P. H. Ruscher, 1996: Modeling the Florida Panhandle Sea Breeze under Different Flow Regimes. Conference on Coastal Oceanic and Atmospheric Prediction, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 187-190.
Herbster, C. G. and P. H. Ruscher, 1996: The Tallahassee area sea breeze experiment (TASBEX) -- Observations and Modeling Study. Conference on Coastal Oceanic, and Atmospheric Prediction, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 382--387.
Gould, K. J., C. G. Herbster, J. D. Korotky and P. H. Ruscher, 1996 WSR-88D, GOES-8, and MM5 Mesoscale Model Observations of the Florida Panhandle Sea Breeze Circulation Under Different Synoptic Flow Regimes. Conference on Coastal Oceanic and Atmospheric Prediction, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 364-369.
Herbster, C. G. and P. H. Ruscher, 1996: The Tallahassee area sea breeze experiment (TASBEX) --Observations and Modeling Study. Conference on Coastal Oceanic and Atmospheric Prediction, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 382--387.