Three different types of satellite images of a cyclone.

Course Info: Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity with the Dvorak Technique

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity with the Dvorak Technique

 

Course Description

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity estimates provide a crucial data point for estimating the impacts of a TC and initializing forecasts. However, obtaining precise intensity measurements is challenging since in-situ observations from reconnaissance flights or buoys are expensive and hard to obtain. Obtaining estimates from readily available, consistent, and abundant visible and/or infrared satellite imagery is required. The Dvorak technique is a long-used procedure that allows an individual with satellite imagery to obtain a reliable estimate of a TCs intensity by analyzing cloud patterns and trends in the TCs development. While there are a variety of computational estimates of a TCs intensity, the Dvorak technique remains an important tool for forecasters and an accurate and reliable method for estimating a TCs intensity.
 

Intended Audience

The intended audience for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity with the Dvorak Technique is forecasters who need to understand or use the Dvorak technique and its output TC intensity. Specifically, this lesson was designed as a prerequisite for participants of the NHC WMO RA-IV Tropical Cyclone Forecasting course, but we expect it to be useful to any forecaster interested in analyzing a tropical cyclones intensity. In this lesson, learners will learn how to apply the 10 steps of the Dvorak technique in order to obtain a reliable estimate of a TCs intensity. Learners will work through a simple real-world case study with various types of satellite imagery while being guided by an expert from the National Hurricane Center.

Publication Date

May 28, 2025

 

Questions or Comments? 

We welcome any comments or questions you may have regarding the content, instructional approach, or use of this lesson. Please e-mail your comments or questions to Tsvet Ross-Lazarov (tlazarov@ucar.edu) or Erin Houlihan (ehoulihan@ucar.edu). For technical support, please visit our Registration and Support FAQs.